Preliminary Future of Ed report set to offer many options, but make no recommendations Rep. Conlon goes off script claiming 'strong policy proposals'; 5.9% tax increase predicted in Dec. 1 letter

By Shawn Cunningham
© 2024 Telegraph Publishing LLC

There were two takeaways from Monday’s meeting of the Commission on the Future of Public Education in Vermont. The commission was given the charge to look at the education system as a whole – including funding it – with a final report due in December 2025 and an interim report with recommendations for “cost containment” for the legislature to look at due this Dec. 15.

The first takeaway is that the report won’t go to the state legislature on Dec. 15 and the second is that it won’t contain recommendations.

Instead the commission will give its “preliminary findings” to the General Assembly on the Dec. 20 and that report will feature a chart containing more than two dozen potential policy actions. Those actions could possibly have the effect of solving or ameliorating problems with the education system and the way it’s funded. But the commission is saying that it has not had the time nor the necessary data to look deeply enough into them to make recommendations that would have near-term effects in containing costs.

“We need to be clear that the timeline given to us arguably does not allow the Commission to undertake the work (Act 183) requires,” wrote commission chair Meagan Roy. At the Monday meeting, she described the preliminary report as a starting point for the session and said that the commission had done a lot of “legwork” for the legislature to use.

Another chart in the commission’s report shows that the commission has made nearly three dozen requests for information and data to the Agency of Education. Much of the information was received,  but the AOE has had problems pulling together other information.  Commission members have praised the AOE’s efforts, while noting that data reporting “has been historically limited in Vermont.”

Since it began in July, the commission, its steering group and its two subcommittees have held a total of 27 meetings, including sessions for public input. The finance subcommittee’s brainstorming session more than two months ago formed the basis for the potential policy actions, but on Monday, Roy asked the commission members if they wanted to send all of the ideas to the legislature with the proviso that they are options that don’t necessarily represent a consensus.

Members agreed that the General Assembly should see all of the ideas with the understanding that the commission is not endorsing any at the moment. Several members said it would give the legislators a sense of how complex the issues are. At the same time, some commission members were concerned that no matter how forcefully they say their ideas are not recommendations, they will be seen as such.

Then on Tuesday afternoon, commission member Rep. Peter Conlon, who chairs the House Education Committee, went off that script saying, “The Commission’s report will include strong policy proposals, including strategies for class size management and addressing the rising costs of healthcare for schools,” according to a press release from House Speaker Jill Krowinski’s office. The release characterized the report as containing “policy recommendations addressing cost containment and strategies for reducing the cost of education.”

On Tuesday night Roy didn’t directly address Conlon’s remarks but said, “We believe our forthcoming preliminary report will provide the General Assembly important information about our current context and potential policy considerations, and we look forward to working with lawmakers to address this most critical charge.”

The commission states that the problems won’t be fixed unless there are policy changes in all three of areas of study: education financing, governance and administration and the education delivery system. The report asserts that changes to just one area will not solve the problems.

With a number of members’ comments for Roy to incorporate into the draft, the commission decided to have a full meeting on Dec. 16 to finalize the work, which it will hand in to the legislature on Friday, Dec. 20. That meeting will be followed by a steering group meeting to begin crafting a schedule for next year’s work.

5.9% school tax increase projected

Tax Commissioner Craig Bolio – who is also a member of the commission – released the so called December 1 letter which is mandated in statute, and outlines the complex set of calculations that go into setting the education taxes for the following year.

Last year, the letter predicted an 18 percent average increase in education taxes, which worked out in the end to just under a 14 percent average across the state. This year, the Department of Taxes is forecasting a 5.9 percent increase on a projected increase in spending of almost $115 million. Bolio said that school districts are working to be “thoughtful in budgeting knowing members of their communities are already struggling to pay their taxes…”

In addition to those efforts, the legislature is expected to look for ways to reduce taxes and the commission’s upcoming report will give those efforts some guidance.

In a statement issued Monday afternoon, Gov. Phil Scott said that some will celebrate that the increase was only in the single digits, “But the fact is, with this projected increase, Vermonters will have seen a 33% increase in education property taxes in the last three years. This is the result of unsustainable costs, an aging demographic, and smaller workforce.”

Scott said that he hoped the legislature would work with the administration to reduce the tax burden.

Those who are familiar with the education funding system will notice that the “homestead property yield” has dropped from $9,893 in FY25 to $8,553 in FY26. Normally a reduction in the yield means an increase in tax rates, but Bolio said the lower yield reflects a new statewide adjustment and the numbers from those two years are not directly comparable.